The COVID-19 Vaccine May Not Work
This is the next major COVID-19 disaster not reported in the media yet: The COVID-19 vaccine may never work for many people because there is no evidence that antibodies produce widespread immunity to COVID-19. In fact, there is an increasing number of cases where people are catching the virus more than once. That means in x number of cases, the body is not producing (enough) antibodies to fight a second exposure to beat the virus without going through all the same pain, suffering and risk of death the first time.
COVID-19 Thwarts the Purpose of a Vaccine in Many People. The entire purpose of a vaccine is to kick-start the body's natural antibody production process, but if natural antibody production from the vaccine is too low (or non-existent), then the vaccine will be substantially useless for some portion of the population. This will significantly undermine the efficacy of the herd immunity phenomenon. But the problem is even worse. . . .
What Do COVID-19 & HIV Have in Common? HIV attacks the immune system by attacking T-cells directly, which is a different pathology than COVID-19, but the immunosuppressant outcome of HIV and COVID-19 are functionally the same in many (not all) people: The immune system cannot defeat the virus, which results in AIDS from HIV and a "ferocious rampage through the body" from COVID-19. (I call this "CovIDS" for COVID-19 Immune Deficiency Syndrome.1) In both AIDS and CovIDS, they open the proverbial floodgates for many other diseases to afflict the body. This ultimately leads to organ failure and death in many people. For these reasons, COVID-19 will probably be eventually classified as a syndrome, which is why I call it CovIDS.
COVID-19 vs. HIV. AIDS is what I call a passive syndrome in which the immune system is entirely disabled. This makes the body vulnerable to virtually any kind of infection, but HIV/AIDS itself is not attacking the body's organs. In contrast, the ferocity of CovIDS manifests as a more active syndrome in which the immune system is disabled in a particular way (insufficient antibodies to COVID-19 and/or possibly a cytokine storm). This allows COVID-19 to attack a long list of organs and systems within the body. Thus, both AIDS and CovIDS can cause lethal damage after you are infected, but there's a big difference: COVID-19 is airborne, and thus, far more contagious than HIV; and there are currently no viable treatments for COVID-19.
In March 2020, we published COVID-19 Will Permanently Change the World. At that time, senior White House officials and partisan media pundits were saying COVID-19 was just another flu virus. Their misleading and unscientific comments lulled the general public into a state of oblivion and denial at precisely the time when they needed to act urgently to prevent the worst plague in over 100 years. Who do we blame for this catastrophe? Event timelines are useful tools because they help us cut through the partisan propaganda to easily visualize a sequence of events. This enables us to more objectively determine exactly who to blame. So let's take a quick trip down pandemic memory lane. . . .
- 1918: Spanish Flu Pandemic. The Spanish Flu was the deadliest pandemic of the 20th Century. It killed 675,000 Americans (more than all U.S. foreign wars combined) and 50 million deaths worldwide. Then humanity had a long period of relative safety from pandemics until the 21st Century. . . .
- 2001: Anthrax Attack. Anthrax attacks in the U.S. infected nearly two dozen people, killed five, with a financial cost of more than $1 billion. Technically, this wasn't a pandemic, but it was a wake-up call about how easily a deadly pathogen can be weaponized and unleashed into human populations.
- 2002—2004: SARS Pandemic. The first Asian SARS pandemic infected over 8,000 people from 29 different countries, killed at least 774 people, and cost the global economy over $40 billion. No vaccine has been produced yet.
- 2003—Present: H5N1 "Bird Flu". This highly contagious and deadly avian influenza virus frequently rampages through poultry farms around the world, killing tens of millions of birds during each bird pandemic. It occasionally jumps into human populations, too, but so far, it has infected less than 500 humans. However, epidemiologists fear H5N1 probably more than any other active virus today because it's so deadly in humans and highly contagious in birds. In humans, the virus has a mortality rate of approximately 60%. H5N1 has not been as contagious in humans, but it only takes one random genetic mutation for H5N1 to start rampaging through human populations, too. That can happen at any moment anywhere on Earth.
- 2007: Warnings from the Scientific Community. After extensive research into the 2002—2004 SARS epidemic in China, the American Society for Microbiology published "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection". In that article, several world-renown scientists said, "the presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb."
- 2009: U.S. Intelligence Warns of Multi-Trillion USD Cost of Future Pandemic. The Director of National Intelligence explicitly said, "The most pressing transnational health challenge for the United States is still the potential for emergence of a severe pandemic, with the primary candidate being a highly lethal influenza virus. The World Bank estimates that if the next pandemic virus is similar to the one that caused the 1918 pandemic, it could kill 71 million people worldwide and cause a major global recession with global costs exceeding $3 trillion. Other estimates, applying the 2.5 percent fatality rate from the 1918 pandemic to today’s population, reach 180 million deaths worldwide."
- 2009—2010: Swine Flu Pandemic. The H1N1 ("Swine Flu") pandemic originated in North America and killed approximately 284,000 people (average estimate) worldwide. (The official "18,449" deaths is likely under-reported, as indicated here.) This was a scary pandemic, but its death toll and impact were approximately the same as a seasonal flu because its mortality rate was much lower and there was a rapid and relatively effective U.S. and global response.
- 2010: U.S. Intelligence Sounds the Alarm Even Louder. The Director of National Intelligence raised alarms about U.S. dependence on foreign supply chains for critical medical supplies: "The current influenza pandemic is the most visible reminder that health issues can suddenly emerge from anywhere in the globe and threaten American lives and US strategic objectives. It also highlights many of the United States’ critical dependencies and vulnerabilities in the health arena. But like an iceberg, the visible portion is just a small fraction of the myriad of health issues that will likely challenge the United States in the coming years. . . . Americans’ health is also vulnerable because of the vast amount of foods and medical supplies that are imported. . . . We assess that the United States has a critical foreign dependence on several pharmaceuticals, such that an overseas disruption in supply would adversely affect Americans’ health that would not be easily mitigated through an alternative supplier or product. . . ."
- 2010: Bill Gates Sounds the Alarm . . . Repeatedly. Bill gates starts writing publicly about the growing risk of global pandemics and continues raising alarms all around the world for the next 10 years.
- 2012: MERS Pandemic. The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has infected only about 2,500 people, from which 868 people have died. MERS has a very high mortality rate (35%), but the virus is not very contagious and has been limited to the Arabian Peninsula . . . so far. No vaccine has been produced yet.
- 2013: U.S. Intelligence Predicts the Exact Pandemic We Are Suffering from Now. The Director of National Intelligence raised alarms in the most chilling terms yet: "An easily transmissible, novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percent of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible. Such an outbreak would result in a global pandemic that causes suffering and death in every corner of the world, probably in fewer than six months. This is not a hypothetical threat. History is replete with examples of pathogens sweeping populations that lack immunity, causing political and economic upheaval. . . ."
- 2013: The Entire U.S. Government is Warned About the Pandemic Risk. Members of the U.S. National Security Council, CDC, FDA, State Department, DoD, USDA, Health & Human Services, and several other U.S. agencies, came together specifically to discuss how to protect the United States from pandemics. The primary reason they came together is because there had already been "a steady increase of infectious disease threats" and "there were many indications in 2013 that the global community was not ready for a pandemic" and "it was clear that infectious diseases would continue to endanger the global community, and that something had to be done," said Bonnie Jenkins, a senior policy advisor at the Brookings Institute, who was present in that meeting.
- 2014: The U.S. Government Takes Action. Shortly after the 2013 meeting (where senior U.S. officials from virtually the entire U.S. Government were made aware of the dire risk of a global pandemic), the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) was launched by the U.S. Government and its international partners. The purpose of the GHSA is to prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease threats. Over 30 countries, including numerous international organizations, are members of the GHSA.
- 2014—2018: Ebola, MERS (again), Zika Virus, Ebola (again). Jenkins said, "A month after launching the GHSA, the world was hit with Ebola; since then, we have confronted the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in South Korea, the 2016 Zika virus, another outbreak of Ebola in 2018, and now, COVID-19." (ibid.)
- 2014: More Scientists Sounding More Alarms. Prominent scientists from the U.S. National Institutes of Health, Princeton University and Oxford University published "Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat". Among many other facts and data to substantiate their fears of a global pandemic, in that article they said, "Pandemic prevention therefore should be a critical health policy issue for the current generation of scientists and policymakers to address."
- 2015: Bill Gates Gives a TED Talk About Pandemic Risk. After working in the developing world for years to combat infectious diseases, Bill Gates has become an expert in this area of public policy. As a result, he gave this 2015 TED talk, which was viewed by millions of people worldwide years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
- 2017: More Scientists Sounding Louder Alarms. The World Health Organization (WHO) published Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses? In that report, the WHO estimated that a pandemic today like the 1918 Spanish Flu would cause between 21 million to 33 million global deaths with an economic cost of $500 billion. The actual multi-trillion USD cost of COVID-19 already dwarfs that figure; and based on the way COVID-19 ravages the body and triggers unusually low antibody production, the likely human cost of COVID-19 will be much higher than any of the optimistic predictions we are seeing from White House officials and the media today.
- 2017: U.S. Intelligence Warns Trump Administration About Catastrophic Pandemic Threat. The Director of National Intelligence warns Trump and the entire U.S. Government about pandemic threat: "A novel or reemerging microbe that is easily transmissible between humans and is highly pathogenic remains a major threat because such an organism has the potential to spread rapidly and kill millions. Threats such as avian influenza and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have pandemic potential. The World Bank has estimated that a severe global influenza pandemic could cost the equivalent of 4.8 percent of global GDP, or more than $3 trillion, during the course of an outbreak."
- 2018: White House Reduces Funding for CDC & Pandemic Prevention Agency. The U.S. National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense, which was responsible for protecting the United States from pandemics, was shutdown. Additionally, "CDC staff was significantly reduced in 2018 as a result of decreased funding for the GHSA." (Jenkins 2020) With the clear and present danger of a catastrophic pandemic at any moment, combined with many deeply alarming reports from prominent scientists, intelligence officials and previous pandemics for over a decade up to this point, why would White House officials shutdown and reduce the funding for such vital public health agencies?
- 2019: U.S. Intelligence Warns Trump Administration About Catastrophic Pandemic Threat (Again). The Director of National Intelligence warns Trump and the entire U.S. Government about pandemic threat (again): "We assess that the United States and the world will remain vulnerable to the next flu pandemic or largescale outbreak of a contagious disease that could lead to massive rates of death and disability, severely affect the world economy, strain international resources, and increase calls on the United States for support. . . ."
- 2019: Event 201 Pandemic Exercise. Johns Hopkins University, et al. release the results of their "Event 201 Pandemic Exercise" in the form of a dramatic video. The results of the exercise bear an eerie resemblance to what we are actually seeing today during the COVID-19 pandemic. The entire global medical community takes notice, but White House officials continue ignoring the threat and de-funding critical pandemic response forces.
When Politicians Lie, People Die. This is a theme we talk about frequently in our nonpartisan books and articles. The COVID-19 pandemic is just the latest example of the tragic socioeconomic consequences of dysfunctional and corrupt political systems. In this case, the timeline above captures only a small fraction of the thousands of scientific and intelligence reports about pandemic risks that have been published over the past 17 years. Regardless of whether their name is Bush, Clinton, Obama, Trump, Xi Jinping, Bolsonaro, Rouhani . . . any politician or media outlet that says this pandemic was "something that nobody expected" or misleads us for political gain is directly responsible for the calamity that humanity is suffering from today.
Since I wrote COVID-19 Will Permanently Change the World, the scientific community has learned that this plague is even more destructive than previously thought. A large portion of the global human population (anybody with pre-existing conditions and anybody who is afraid of dying) will probably need to wear masks and live in a state of fear for the rest of their lives.
Sustainable Truth is Better than Unsustainable Fantasy. We don't want to be unnecessarily pessimistic, but everything we do at Gini is based on real-world facts, data and evidence. In this case, until/unless some heretofore undiscovered new nano-based or genetic treatment replaces vaccines and the body's natural immune system (which is many years away), there's no scientific basis for the fantasies coming from the White House today. COVID-19 is not "going to disappear . . . like a miracle". No, it's going to radically disrupt human civilization for many years to come.
Don't Let Politicians Blame the Virus. Many politicians are trying to blame the virus for everything today, including the tragic socioeconomic consequences of their atrocious trade, labor, monetary and tax policies, which have already been decimating our middle class for decades. The virus didn't create a healthcare system that bankrupts Americans just for going to the emergency room. The virus didn't create an economic system that already forced approximately 80% of Americans to live off their credit cards and descend into a debt dungeon just to maintain a stable quality of life. The virus didn't create a political system that is so dysfunctional that the federal government can't respond effectively to a pandemic that has been widely predicted for nearly two decades.
No, the political pathogens in our government did those things. That's why the Gini Foundation exists. Gini is a vaccine for the socioeconomic pathologies that plague humanity today.
Gini is Helping to Alleviate the Pain. We are deeply disgusted with the dysfunctional systems and incompetent humans that have caused this crisis, but writing articles and books is not enough. That's why we are also using our skills and resources to distribute critically needed medical supplies to the organizations that need them most. If there are any healthcare facilities or city/state governments in your area that need masks, gloves, etc., please let them know Gini can help them obtain the supplies they need.
1. We can't call the COVID-19 syndrome "CIDS" because that sounds like "kids" or "sids", depending on how you pronounce the "C". That's a bad idea because we don't want to associate COVID-19 with all the innocent kids of the world and SIDS is already associated with Sudden Infant Death Syndrome. That's why I think CovIDS is the best label for this COVID-19-induced syndrome.
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